Hamas will prioritize strong connections with Iran in choosing its leadership

CAIRO/RAMALA:

In choosing its next leader, Hamas will look for a candidate who can preserve deep ties with Tehran at a time when Iranian support will be more important than ever to help the Palestinian group recover from the Gaza war , analysts say.

The team has several potential replacements for Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran last week. They include former leader Khaled Meshaal, who led Hamas for 13 years outside the Palestinian territories until handing over to Haniyeh in 2017.

But experts believe his chances could be hurt by past friction with Iran and its regional allies, notably Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Meshaal was a Hamas leader when the group turned on Damascus during the Arab Spring and declared sympathy for the uprising against him.

Iran’s support will be doubly important for Hamas as it seeks to rebuild once the guns fall silent in Gaza, devastated by Israeli bombardment since the group opened the war with an attack on Israel on October 7. While Hamas continues to fight in Gaza, 10 months of pounding by Israel has hit it hard.

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That consideration seems likely to boost the prospects of candidates seen as closer to Tehran, including Khalil al-Hayya, who currently serves as Hamas’s deputy leader for Gaza, although he left the region a few years ago.

“There may have been some setback to Meshaal’s chances to take Haniyeh’s place because he does not enjoy much support from Iran since he was the one who turned against the Syrian regime and ended Hamas’ presence in Damascus,” said Ashraf Abouelhoul. , an expert on Palestinian issues and managing editor of the Egyptian state newspaper Al-Ahram.

“Also, the military, which is interested in the idea of ​​reconstruction when the war is over, will consider a candidate whose ties to Iran are strong enough to ensure that reconstruction takes place,” he said.

A Hamas official said Reuters the succession had not yet been settled and discussions are ongoing.

Haya says Hamas leadership united

Hamas officials Khalil Al-Hayya and Osama Hamdan attend a news conference in Beirut, Lebanon November 21, 2023. PHOTO: REUTERS

Hayya was known to be very close to Haniyeh. She accompanied him to Tehran for the visit during which he was killed in July.

He led Hamas’ negotiating team for ceasefire talks under Haniyeh’s watch and also led reconciliation talks with Hamas’s Palestinian rival Fatah in previous years.

Like Haniyeh, he has maintained strong ties with Iran and in 2022 led a Hamas delegation to Damascus to mend ties with Assad, calling the meeting historic.

Speaking as Hamas received condolences for Haniya’s death in Qatar, Haya said the movement’s leadership remains united.

“Our will is strong and cannot be broken by the martyrdom of one leader or two or three,” he said. “God willing, within days we will complete our consultations on the selection of a new leader.”

Former Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal accepts condolences at a mourning house for slain Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Doha, Qatar, August 2, 2024. PHOTO: REUTER

Hani al-Masri, a Palestinian political analyst, said that in less unusual times the group’s leader in Gaza, Yahya Shinwar, would have been a candidate.

Sinwar masterminded the Oct. 7 attack, in which gunmen killed 1,200 people and kidnapped another 250, according to Israeli accounts, sparking the Israeli offensive, which Gaza’s health ministry says has killed 40,000 people.

Sinwar is widely believed to still be waging Hamas’s war from tunnels under Gaza.

Haya’s chances are helped by his good ties to the Lebanese group Hezbollah, the region’s most powerful faction aligned with Iran, which has traded fire with Israel throughout the Gaza war.

Masri noted Meshaal’s leadership qualities and experience, but said his prospects depended on healing the rift with Iran: “His weak point is his negative relations with Iran, Syria and Hezbollah at a time where there is … common war”.