KARACHI:
Director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program Lisa Curtis at CNAS warned that heightened tensions between nuclear-armed neighbors Pakistan and Iran have raised concerns in the United States, with fears the situation is spiraling out of control.
In an interview with VOA Deewa, Curtis, a seasoned foreign policy and national security expert, highlighted the motivation behind Iran’s recent invasion of Pakistan, linking the move to retaliation after the January 3 double suicide bombing, a attack claimed by ISIS.
“Elevated tensions between nuclear power Pakistan and Iran, which are nevertheless developing a nuclear program, cause the United States to be concerned. He does not want to see the situation out of control,” he said.
Lisa Curtis is a senior fellow and director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at CNAS. He is a foreign policy and national security expert with over 20 years of service in the US government, including the National Security Council (NSC), the CIA, the State Department, and Capitol Hill.
“So I think Iran had to show that it will strike back when attacked, and Pakistan, in a way, is seen as an easier target, allowing Iran to show its people a retaliation to the terrorist attack without provoking Israel or the US. ,” said the senior associate for the Indo-Pacific security program.
“Pakistan-India tension is always high, there is also a tension between Pakistan and Taliban because they avoid suppressing the terrorist Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP). He warned of escalating chaos in a volatile region, and that is the main concern of the US.
He said that Pakistan and Iran must ease tensions, highlighting their apparent progress in that direction. Pakistan has emphasized fraternal relations and Iran has distinguished Pakistanis and officials from terrorists.
He believed that these actions indicated their collective efforts to de-escalate the current tense situation. Responding to a question about the timing chosen by Iran to invade Pakistan, Lisa said it was intended to send an international signal. According to her, Iran aimed to show strength and resilience, reassuring the world that it remains formidable and ready to face any aggression.
Read more: Pakistan-Iran border remains open: officially
“Despite the recent terrorist attack, Iran tried to project power and unfortunately Pakistan happened to be one of the targets,” he added.
Baloch separatists
The director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program acknowledged the de-escalation gestures by Pakistan and Iran, noting that the region is not currently in immediate danger of further escalation. However, she expressed concern about possible risks in the future.
“Baloch separatists in Iran who were attacked could strike back inside Pakistan and what would happen then? Pakistan suspecting India’s involvement with Baloch separatists may feel the need to send messages to India,” Lisa raised critical questions.
Contrary to the prevailing views, Lisa highlighted the current problems facing Pakistan never allow it to get involved in any regional conflict. The senior expert also highlighted other key issues facing Pakistan, such as economic recession, reliance on an IMF package, terrorist attacks and the upcoming general elections that come amid a diminished reputation for the establishment given its perceived actions against the most popular political party, the Pakistan Tehreek-Insaf (PTI), and the imprisonment of its founding chairman Imran Khan.
Answering a question about the future of Baloch terrorists, he underlined the counterproductive nature of resorting to terrorism. He stressed that involvement in terrorist activities will worsen the lives of Baloch people on both sides.
“When there are violent insurgencies, that is not going to help them in any way, shape or form to gain additional rights or economic benefits.” Discussing China’s role in the current situation, the senior expert noted that Chinese officials may believe they should be able to influence the situation. He argued that when it comes down to it, they don’t really have the ability to influence regional developments as much as they might hope.
“China has so much influence and power only in this kind of volatile situation, it has strong and traditionally close relations with Pakistan, as well as trying to maintain positive ties with Iran, but its influence has limits,” he argued.
He stressed that even with the strength of the China-Pakistan relationship, it is critical to recognize the limitations of Chinese mediation. In her view, the effectiveness of Chinese engagement may fall short of expectations, particularly in complex and volatile situations.
Sharing her observation about the upcoming polls in Pakistan, she noted that there was uneasiness about the political situation and the elections and not much excitement about the polls. “There is a perception among the people of Pakistan’s establishment [seen as the centre of power] has chosen the party of choice and the popular PTI does not stand much of a chance, then unfortunately there is a lack of faith in the country’s democratic process,” Lisa expressed concern.
Taliban, TTP
He pointed to Pakistan’s economic recession and high inflation making things more difficult. He believes there is a general kind of malaise in the country. On security, he pointed out that TTP terrorists are also becoming a headache for Pakistan’s security institutions.
“There is a deep frustration among Pakistan’s security establishment about their lack of ability to influence the Taliban to crack down on TTP terrorists on their soil,” he claimed. The director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program believes that the independent stance adopted by the Taliban, where they do not feel the need to answer to Pakistan or fulfill Pakistan’s demands, is a new and surprising development for the Pakistani establishment.
“A new situation is emerging in the region and Pakistan is taking its stand in light of a newly convinced Taliban who now have options beyond Pakistan’s military establishment,” he added.
The senior security expert is unhappy with the security situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan, attributing one of the reasons to the rise of the Taliban.
He further pointed to the common ideological attraction between the Taliban and various other terrorist groups, stressing that this alignment in ideological principles allows these groups to operate more freely in Afghanistan, as Taliban control provides them with a relatively safe environment.
“The lack of pressure on terrorist groups, because of the Taliban’s control of Afghanistan, is counterproductive, so it backfires in Pakistan and there’s more insecurity, there’s more Taliban-like influence in the region and so it affects the elections, the economy and women and girls,” Lisa Curtis expressed concern.
He added that the oppression of women and girls under the Taliban regime in Afghanistan is indeed having a profound effect on Pakistan. Women and girls in Pakistan are also suffering because of this regressive fundamentalist ideology that the Taliban is introducing into the region.
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