Turkey’s emerging opposition defeats Erdogan in key local elections

CONSTANTINOPLE:

Turks dealt their biggest electoral blow to President Tayyip Erdogan and his party on Sunday in a national vote that restored the opposition as a political force and boosted Istanbul’s mayor Ekrem Imamoglou as the main opponent of the president.

With the most votes counted, Imamoglu led by 10 percentage points in the mayoral race in Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city, while the Republican People’s Party (CHP) retained Ankara and won another 15 mayoral seats in cities nationwide.

It marked the worst defeat for Erdogan and his AKP Party (AKP) in their more than two decades in power and could signal a shift in the country’s divided political landscape. Erdogan called it a “turning point” in a late-night speech.

He and the AKP fared worse than polls predicted because of soaring inflation, disaffected Islamist voters and, in Istanbul, Imamoglu’s appeal beyond the CHP’s secular base, analysts said.

“Those who do not understand the message of the nation will eventually lose,” Imamoglu, 53, told thousands of jubilant supporters late Sunday, some of whom were calling for Erdogan to step down.

“Tonight, 16 million citizens of Istanbul sent a message to both our opponents and the president,” said the former businessman, who entered politics in 2008 and is now widely touted as a possible presidential challenger.

Erdogan, who in the 1990s was also mayor of his hometown of Istanbul, had campaigned hard before the municipal electionswhich analysts characterized as a gauge of both his support and the strength of the opposition.

Addressing crowds gathered at the AKP’s headquarters in Ankara, the capital, Erdogan said his alliance had “lost ground” across the country and would take steps to respond to the voter’s message.

“If we made a mistake, we will correct it” in the coming years, he said. “If we’re missing something, we’ll make it up.”

Elsewhere in Ankara, thousands of other supporters had earlier waved Turkish and party flags for a speech by re-elected CHP mayor Mansur Yavas, who trounced his AKP challenger in another upset for Erdogan.

According to 92.92% of polls opened in Istanbul, Europe’s largest city and the country’s economic engine, Imamoglu had 50.92% support compared to 40.05% for AKP rival Murat Kurum, former minister of Erdogan’s national government.

Polls had predicted a tight contest in Istanbul and possible CHP losses across the country.

However, some official results reported by the state-run Anadolu Agency showed that the AKP and its main ally relinquished the mayoralty in 19 key municipalities, including the major cities of Bursa and Balikesir in the industrialized northwest, possibly reflecting pressures on wage earners.

The CHP led nationally with almost 1 percent of the vote, for the first time in 35 years, the results showed.

Mert Arslanalp, assistant professor of political science at Istanbul’s Bogazici University, said it was Erdogan’s “hardest electoral defeat” since he took national power in 2002.

“Imamoglu showed that he could overcome the deep socio-political divisions that define Turkey’s opposition electorate even without their institutional support,” he said. “This makes him the most politically competitive opponent of the Erdogan regime.”

rise of Imamoglu

In 2019, Imamoglu dealt Erdogan a sharp electoral blow when he won Istanbul for the first time, ending 25 years of rule in the city by the AKP and its Islamist predecessors, including Erdogan’s own decade as mayor of 1990. The CHP also won Ankara that year.

The president fought back in 2023 by securing re-election and a parliamentary majority with his nationalist allies, despite a long-running cost-of-living crisis.

Analysts said economic pressures, including nearly 70 percent inflation and slowing growth caused by an aggressive monetary tightening regime, pushed voters to punish the AKP this time.

“The economy was the deciding factor,” said Hakan Akbas, senior adviser at Albright Stonebridge Group. “The Turkish people demanded change and Imamoglu is now President Erdogan’s enemy of choice.”

Erdogan said ending the second election cycle in less than a year would in itself bring a respite for the economy.

In front of Istanbul’s municipality building, flag-waving supporters said they wanted to see Imamoglu challenge Erdogan for the presidency in the future.

“We are very happy. I love him so much. We would like to see him as president,” said Esra, a housewife.

Growing popular support for the Islamist New Welfare Party, which has taken an even tougher stance than Erdogan against Israel over the Gaza conflict, has also eroded support for the AKP. The party took Sanliurfa from an entrenched AKP in the southeast.

Imamoglu was re-elected despite his collapse opposition alliance which failed to unseat Erdogan last year.

The main pro-Kurdish party, which supported Imamoglu in 2019, presented its own candidate under the DEM banner in Istanbul this time. But many Kurds put aside party allegiance and they voted for him again, say the results.

In the predominantly Kurdish southeast region, DEM confirmed its strength, winning 10 provinces. After previous elections, the state replaced pro-Kurdish mayors with state-appointed “trustees” after previous elections for alleged militant ties.

Violence erupted earlier in the day, including an incident in the southeast where groups armed with guns, sticks and stones clashed, killing one and injuring 11. In another, a neighborhood official, or “mukhtar,” candidate was killed and four people were killed and injured in battle, Anadolu reported.

Several others were injured in other incidents, while one person was shot and two injured overnight before the vote in Bursa, Demiroren news agency reported.