The SPI is up 2.41% year-to-date despite a weekly decline

Pakistan’s weekly sensitive price index (SPI) registered an annual increase of 2.41%, highlighting persistent pressure on household budgets despite a short-term easing in some key food and fuel prices, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

PBS data for the week ending January 1, 2026 shows that the SPI fell by 0.67% on a weekly basis, reflecting temporary relief from falling prices of selected perishables. However, the broader annual trend continues to point to structural cost pressures for consumers, particularly low- and middle-income households. The SPI is calculated weekly based on the prices of 51 commodities collected from 50 markets in 17 urban centers, making it a key barometer of short-term inflation trends.

On a weekly basis, the decline was largely due to sharp declines in prices of onions, down 11.84%, potatoes, down 10.21%, eggs, down 6.25%, and petroleum products, including petrol, down 3.89% and high speed diesel, down 3.20%. Sugar, pulses, liquefied petroleum gas and gur also saw a marked drop week-on-week. This relief was partially offset by increases in chicken prices, up 2.37%, wheat flour, up 1.88%, tomatoes, up 1.72%, and bananas, up 1.13%, underscoring continued volatility in food prices.

The year-on-year picture remains more worrying for households. PBS data shows that gas bills for the first quarter rose by almost 30%, while wheat flour prices were almost 25% higher compared to the same period last year. Other staples, including beef, up 12.95%, sugar, up 11.90%, bananas, up 10.63%, and milk powder, up 9.51%, also recorded double- or near-double-digit annual growth. Basic non-food items such as firewood, lawn cloth and shirts further added to the rising cost of living.

At the same time, some commodities provided some relief year-on-year, with sharp falls in tomatoes, down more than 70%, potatoes, down 52%, onions, down 40% and selected pulses. Despite these reductions, analysts note that the benefit is often uneven and seasonal, limiting its ability to ease household financial stress over the long term.

A breakdown by spending quintiles shows the lowest income group saw a 1.24 percent year-on-year increase, while middle-income groups recorded an increase of about 2.5 percent, fueling concerns that inflationary pressures remain embedded.