Inflation is forecast to slow to 5.8%-6.8% in November and then further to 5.6%-6.5% in December, the finance ministry said in its monthly economic report on Wednesday.
“Inflation is expected… [to] further decline to 5.6% – 6.5% by December 2024,” the Finance Department said in its Monthly Economic Update and Outlook.
The central bank cut interest rates by 250 basis points earlier in November in a bid to revive a sluggish economy amid a sharp drop in inflation.
According to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data, inflation fell sharply to 7.2% in October from a multi-decade high of nearly 40% in May 2023, while it was slightly higher than 6.9% in September 2024.
“On the agriculture front, wheat sowing is underway to achieve the target area and production. Government facilities are intact in providing timely essential inputs to farmers at reasonable prices,” according to the report.
It said the large-scale manufacturing (LSM) sector appears to be struggling to recover.
Although annual growth remained negative, monthly performance showed signs of resilience, with output gradually increasing in key sectors such as textiles and the automotive industry.
The finance department said it was adamant on extending its policy support to the sector, adding that external stability would prove a springboard for sustained improvement, hinting at a cautiously optimistic outlook for a gradual recovery.
The report also highlighted that the current account showed a surplus in the first four months of 2025, boosting the external sector.
“For the outlook, it is expected that exports, imports and remittances of workers will continue to observe their upward trend – exports will remain within the range of 2.5-3.0 billion dollars, imports 4.5- $4.9 billion and workers’ remittances $2.8-3.3 billion November 2024,” according to the monthly economic outlook.
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