The COP29 climate talks are entering the final stretch. what happens next?

Marathon COP29 climate talks enter their final stretch on Wednesday, when hosts Azerbaijan are due to release an update on the negotiations so far, as the summit seeks to agree a new target on issues such as funding for climate.

The talks, which began on November 11, are due to conclude on Friday at 14:00 GMT, but COP summits have a long history.

Here’s a breakdown of the known sticking points and what happens next:

Text drafts

Officials spent the first week trying to agree deals on a range of different issues, including the economy, carbon markets, the future of fossil fuels and efforts to mitigate global warming.

Now, the outstanding items have been handed over to ministers so they can use their political clout to try to get deals across the line.

The next steps involve trying to reduce the draft texts containing a huge range of wording options into a final document that can be adopted by consensus at the end of the summit.

Draft texts will be published periodically by the presidency of Azerbaijan, as they zero in on an acceptable agreement.

Climate finance target

The primary goal of COP29 is to agree a new target for how much money should be provided to developing countries to help them adapt to climate-induced weather disasters and transition to cleaner energy systems.

A previous goal of giving $100 billion a year expires in 2025. The new goal should be $1 trillion a year by the end of the decade, experts say.

The focus in the negotiating rooms has been on defining the structure of a new target, including what counts as climate finance and who should pay. Only after this is agreed, the parties are expected to start talking about the size of the target.

Among the issues to be considered are whether countries such as China should be among the wealthiest major donors and the extent to which countries should provide funding in the form of grants or loans.

A text is scheduled for publication Wednesday afternoon.

Fossil fuels

Countries have so far struggled to agree on the right way to follow up on an agreement at last year’s summit to transition away from fossil fuels.

European states want to see this commitment mentioned in any agreement in Baku to reinforce the importance of continuing with firm action. Others, including the Arab Group of States, argue that it need not be.

If there are previous COPs, the moment any text of the agreement is published, delegates will look for the phrase “fossil fuels” to see if there are signs of backsliding.

carbon markets

Talks in Baku began with an early agreement on some of the quality standards that would govern a global market for carbon credits, but much remains to be agreed, including how transactions will be monitored and disclosure rules.

If fully agreed, market watchers expect a UN-backed global market could fund billions of dollars of projects that reduce greenhouse gas emissions from projects such as reforestation.

Scrutiny of the details is intense amid concern that without tight regulation carbon credits may not deliver the benefits they claim.

Final hours

COPs rarely finish on time. COP28 in Dubai closed almost a full day after the original deadline. COP27 in Egypt was overrun by about 36 hours.

In the last few hours, delegations have been conferring intensively with the Presidency privately on the proposed deal, often through the night, looking for something that can be approved by consensus.

Once finalized, each country is called into the main room to begin an hour-long formal approval process.