Thailand pushes for US tariffs as border clashes with Cambodia flare

Thailand resisted US tariff pressure aimed at enforcing peace with Cambodia as border clashes flared this week, ending a Trump-backed truce since July. At the time, a call by then-US President Donald Trump and the threat of “crushing tariffs” had helped to end five days of intense clashes.

“Bangkok’s resistance is a test of Trump’s tariff game, but the tariff has always been a blunt instrument,” said Chong Ja Yan, a political science professor at the National University of Singapore. “Whether it can achieve a lasting ceasefire due to long-standing and deep-rooted hostilities was and is doubtful.”

Trump, in his quest for a Nobel Peace Prize, has tried to mediate several conflicts in recent months using tariffs as leverage, with mixed results, while also alienating some countries. Earlier this year, his push to end fighting between India and Pakistan – reportedly using high tariffs – strained relations between New Delhi and Washington. India, however, denies that the tariffs played any role in ending hostilities.

Reading: Cambodia-Thailand conflicts spread

At a rally in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, Trump said he expected to make a phone call on Wednesday to end the fighting between Thailand and Cambodia, without elaborating.

Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow stressed that resolving the border conflict should remain separate from ongoing trade negotiations. In October, the United States and Thailand announced a mutual trade framework maintaining 19 percent tariffs on Thai goods while identifying areas for potential tariff cuts. “We feel it is unfair that they are already subject to unilateral tariffs of 19 percent, and they may want to impose even more tariffs if they are not happy,” Sihasak said in an interview on Tuesday.

Thailand and Cambodia have disputed parts of their 817-kilometer (508-mile) land border for over a century. Efforts to address the overlapping claims have made little progress, leading to periodic military flare-ups.

The current hostilities come as Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul – who took power in September after toppling his predecessor over the border issue – prepares to dissolve parliament next month and call snap elections in March. Anutin has already faced criticism for his government’s slow response to deadly floods in the south last month, threatening to derail his party’s Bhumjaithai ambitions.

“It puts Bhumjaithai in a position to prove his leadership ability during his short leadership tenure, and that’s clearly trying to win votes in the coming election,” said Laura Schwartz, senior analyst at risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft.

Read more: Trump expects Thailand-Cambodia ceasefire at ASEAN summit: Malaysia

While higher tariffs remain a risk, Anutin and his party may seek to capitalize on nationalist sentiment by taking a tougher stance on trade and separating it from the border dispute. Anutin faced sharp criticism from some of the most nationalist elements when he signed the Trump-Malaysia-brokered ceasefire agreement, said Voranai Vanijaka, a lecturer at Bangkok’s Thammasat University. “So it will keep Trump at bay for now,” he added.

A nationwide poll in August showed Thais overwhelmingly trust the military – which has been more vocal in its response to Cambodia – than the political leadership.

“Thailand may face an immediate tariff reversal, but it is banking on its military superiority and the limited nature of the conflict,” Chong said. “He probably thinks he can prevail and the Trump administration will live with that result.”