Pakistan-Iran tensions have raised concerns in the US

Director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program Lisa Curtis at CNAS warned that heightened tensions between nuclear-armed neighbors Pakistan and Iran have raised concerns in the United States, with fears the situation is spiraling out of control.

In an interview with VOA Deewa, Curtis, a seasoned foreign policy and national security expert, highlighted the motivation behind Iran’s recent invasion of Pakistan, linking the move to retaliation after the January 3 twin suicide bombings claimed by Daesh. .

“So I think Iran had to show that it will strike back when attacked, and Pakistan, in a way, is seen as an easier target, allowing Iran to show its people a retaliation to the terrorist attack without provoking Israel or the US.” Curtis said.

Curtis emphasized the importance of US concern for regional stability, warning of possible escalation. Amid ongoing tensions in the region, including between Pakistan and India, as well as with the Taliban, he warned of the potential for chaos if not handled carefully.

“Pakistan-India tension is always high, there are also tensions between Pakistan and Taliban because they avoid suppressing the Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) terrorists,” he warned, expressing concerns of possible chaos if not handled carefully.

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He argued that Pakistan and Iran should defuse tensions, noting their apparent move in that direction with Pakistan talking about brotherly relations and Iran also separating Pakistani people and officials from terrorists. He believes this shows their joint efforts to de-escalate the current tense situation.

Responding to a question about the timing chosen by Iran to invade Pakistan, Lisa said it was meant to send an international signal. According to her, Iran aimed to show strength and resilience, reassuring the world that it remains formidable and ready to face any aggression.

“Despite the recent terrorist attack, Iran tried to project power and unfortunately Pakistan happened to be one of the targets,” he added.

While acknowledging recent moves by Pakistan and Iran toward de-escalation, Curtis stressed that the region remains at risk. “Baloch separatists in Iran who were attacked could strike back inside Pakistan and what would happen then?” Curtis wondered, highlighting potential risks despite ongoing de-escalation efforts.

Contrary to the prevailing views, Lisa highlighted the current problems facing Pakistan and never allowed it to get involved in any regional conflict.

He pointed to key issues such as the country’s economic downturn, reliance on the IMF package, terror attacks and the upcoming polls, which come at a time when the establishment’s reputation has suffered because it appears to be holding back the most populous Pakistan Tehreek-Insaf party. . PTI) and jailed its chairman, Imran Khan.

Answering a question about the future of Baloch terrorists, he underlined the counterproductive nature of resorting to terrorism. He pointed out that terrorist activities will make life worse for Baloch on both sides.

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He said that violent insurgencies will not help Baloch cause in any way, shape or form to get extra rights or economic benefits.

Discussing China’s role in the current situation, the senior expert observes that Chinese officials may believe they should be able to influence the situation. He argued that when it comes down to it, they really cannot influence regional developments as much as they might hope.

“China has so much influence and power only in this kind of volatile situation, it has strong and traditionally close relations with Pakistan, as well as efforts to maintain positive ties with Iran, but its influence has limits,” he argued.

He stressed that even with the strength of the China-Pakistan relationship, it is critical to recognize the limitations of Chinese mediation. In her view, the effectiveness of Chinese engagement may fall short of expectations, particularly in complex and volatile situations.

Sharing her observations on the upcoming polls in Pakistan, she believes there is uneasiness about the political situation and elections, with not much enthusiasm for the polls.

“There is a perception among the people of Pakistan that the establishment, which is considered the center of power, has chosen the party of choice and the popular PTI does not stand much of a chance. Unfortunately, there is a lack of faith in the country’s democratic process,” Lisa expressed concern.

He highlighted Pakistan’s depressed economic situation and high inflation, which makes things more difficult. He believes there is a general kind of malaise in the country. On security, he pointed out that TTP terrorists have also become a headache for Pakistan’s security institutions.

“There is deep frustration among Pakistan’s security establishment over their lack of ability to influence the Taliban to suppress TTP terrorists on their soil,” he claimed.

Curtis believes that the independent position taken by the Taliban, who do not feel the need to answer to Pakistan or fulfill Pakistan’s demands, is quite new and surprising to the Pakistani establishment. “A new situation is emerging in the region and Pakistan is taking its stand in light of a newly convinced Taliban who now have options beyond Pakistan’s military establishment,” he added.

The senior security expert is not satisfied with the security situation in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan and believes that one of the reasons is the rise of the Taliban. He highlights the common ideological attraction between the Taliban and various other terrorist groups, stressing that this alignment in ideological principles allows these groups to operate more freely in Afghanistan, as Taliban control provides them with a relatively safe environment.

“The lack of pressure on terrorist groups, due to the Taliban’s control of Afghanistan, is counterproductive. It’s coming back to Pakistan, leading to more insecurity and more Taliban-style influence in the region, affecting elections, the economy and women and girls,” Curtis said.

He said that the oppression of women and girls under the Taliban regime in Afghanistan is indeed having a profound effect on Pakistan, where women and girls are also suffering because of this backward fundamentalist ideology that the Taliban is bringing to the region.