Pakistan’s trade deficit with Gulf countries narrowed sharply in July, the first month of FY2026-27, on State Bank data (Dawn).
The headline figures, July 2026 against July 2025
| | July 2026 | July 2025 | Change | |—|—|—|—| | Exports | $271.60m | $257.16m | +5.6pc | | Imports | $879.98m | $1.578bn | −44.3pc |
The deficit narrowed from roughly $1.32bn to about $608m — but almost none of that is an export story.
Where the change came from
Exports rose $14m. Imports fell $698m. The improvement is 98 per cent an import contraction.
By country:
| | Exports | Imports | |—|—|—| | Saudi Arabia | +4.5pc | −20pc+ | | UAE | +9pc | −36.4pc | | Qatar | −16pc | −78pc | | Kuwait | −10.5pc | −97pc | | Bahrain | −32.2pc | +118pc | | Jordan | +13.7pc | +4.2pc |
What that pattern actually shows
The collapses are concentrated in Qatar and Kuwait, and are described as energy-related. Pakistan buys LNG from Qatar and crude from Kuwait; imports from both have effectively stopped.
A 97 per cent fall in imports from Kuwait in a single month is not a policy achievement. It is a supply interruption — and it sits alongside Nepra’s decision this week to pass Rs2.58 a unit to consumers because of “expensive LNG purchases from the spot market”.
Those two facts are the same fact. Contracted Gulf energy did not arrive; spot cargoes were bought instead, at higher prices.
The full-year context
For FY26 as a whole, exports to the region fell 2 per cent to $3.093bn and imports fell 4 per cent to $16.413bn.
Even after July’s contraction, the region sells Pakistan roughly five times what it buys from it.
The honest reading
A narrower deficit driven by an inability to import energy is not the same as a narrower deficit driven by selling more. The export line — up 5.6 per cent, on a base of $257m — is the number that would matter if it kept moving. One month does not establish that.
