Since April 24, 2025, Pakistan has maintained a ban on all Indian-registered, owned, or operated airlines and aircrafts using its airspace.
This measure was imposed amid heightened bilateral tensions following a false flag attack in Pahalgam, Indian Occupied Kashmir.
Pakistan described the attack as a false flag operation orchestrated by India, along with what it called unsubstantiated Indian allegations against Pakistan made without providing evidence. These developments were followed by Indian airstrikes on civilian targets in Pakistan, which Pakistan characterized as illegal attacks on civilian religious sites/areas.
Fearing further aggression, the Government of Pakistan banned Indian-owned and Indian-registered airlines and aircrafts from entering its airspace. The stated purpose was to prevent any potential misuse of civilian flights as cover by Indian Air Force fighter jets for additional strikes against Pakistan.
The restriction, repeatedly extended and currently in force through at least May 2026, has forced Indian carriers to adopt lengthy detours on westbound international routes to Europe, North America, the Middle East, and Central Asia.
This has resulted in significantly increased flight durations, higher fuel consumption, and substantial operational costs.
Air India bears the heaviest burden due to its extensive long haul network, while low-cost carrier IndiGo and smaller operators also face notable impacts. Industry wide annual losses are estimated at $800 million to $1 billion, exacerbating challenges from concurrent Middle East airspace restrictions.
Introduction
The closure of Pakistani airspace represents one of the most sustained aviation restrictions between the two neighbours in recent years. Unlike the brief 2019 closure (approximately five months, costing Indian airlines around $64–82 million), the current ban has persisted for over a year, fundamentally altering routing options for flights departing from major Indian hubs, particularly Delhi. International carriers remain unaffected and continue to benefit from direct overflights, placing Indian airlines at a competitive disadvantage.
Rerouting typically involves flying southward over the Arabian Sea before heading northwest via Iranian or alternative corridors, adding distance and complexity. This has cascading effects on fuel burn (which constitutes 30–40% of operating costs), crew duty times, aircraft utilization, and payload capacity.
Increased Flight Times and Operational Disruptions
The detour has led to measurable extensions in block times across affected routes.
Middle East routes (e.g., Delhi–Dubai or similar)
Approximately +45–60 minutes, reducing available cargo and passenger payload due to higher fuel requirements.
Central Asia
Early examples included Delhi–Baku extending from ~5 hours 5 minutes to 5 hours 43 minutes (+38 minutes), with some Delhi–Tbilisi legs nearly doubling and certain services (e.g., to Almaty) temporarily cancelled. Increases of 70–80 minutes became routine in many sectors.
Europe and North America
Typical additions of 1–2.5 hours on Europe-bound flights, with some long-haul services to the US seeing up to +4 hours overall. On ultra-long routes, aircraft often lack sufficient fuel for non-stop operations under the new paths, necessitating technical stops in Europe (e.g., Vienna, Copenhagen, or Rome). One Delhi–New York service, for instance, extended to nearly 22 hours including a stop, compared to shorter competitor routings.
These extensions strain crew rostering, increase maintenance cycles, and reduce aircraft productivity. Some frequencies have been adjusted or suspended, particularly on thinner Central Asian routes. Compounding factors, such as later Middle East airspace constraints linked to regional conflicts, have further disrupted operations and led to additional cancellations.
Financial Impact
The primary cost drivers are elevated fuel consumption, additional crew expenses, and lost revenue opportunities from reduced payload and scheduling inefficiencies.
Air India
As the carrier with the most extensive long-haul international operations, it faces the largest hit. Internal estimates project $500–600 million in additional annual costs for a full year of the ban (approximately ₹4,000–5,000 crore). This figure, cited in correspondence with the Indian government seeking compensatory subsidies, has contributed to broader loss projections for the airline in FY26. Air India CEO Campbell Wilson has publicly acknowledged the significant burden, describing it as a major drag on profitability.
IndiGo
The low-cost giant, with a growing but still more limited long-haul presence, anticipates an annual impact of around ₹1,300 crore (~$155 million).
Industry wide consolidated estimates for all Indian carriers range from $800 million to $1 billion annually (≈ ₹7,000 crore), driven by higher fuel burn and operational adjustments. Shorter term assessments in the ban’s early months projected $10–15 million for one month, scaling up substantially over time.
These costs occur against a backdrop of already thin margins in the Indian aviation sector. While direct fare increases have been moderated so far (analysts note the impact is more operational than immediately price-pass-through heavy), indirect effects include potential capacity reductions and competitive disadvantages versus foreign carriers that retain shorter routings.
Airlines have lobbied for government relief, including fee rationalization and targeted subsidies.
Broader Context and Outlook
The ban coincides with other geopolitical pressures, notably airspace challenges in West Asia, creating a “double blow” for Indian carriers reliant on western corridors. Passenger experience has suffered through longer journeys, delays, and occasional cancellations, though demand on key routes has remained resilient in some cases.As the restriction approaches or exceeds its one-year mark with extensions into mid-2026, sustained pressure on profitability is likely unless diplomatic resolutions ease the situation or alternative routings (e.g., via Chinese airspace) gain approval.
For now, the airspace ban underscores how bilateral tensions can impose enduring economic costs on commercial aviation affecting carriers from the restricted nation.
Conclusion
Pakistan’s ongoing airspace closure has transformed routine westbound operations for Indian airlines into costlier, longer endeavours. With Air India alone confronting hundreds of millions in extra annual expenses and the broader industry facing nearly $1 billion in cumulative strain, the episode highlights the vulnerability of aviation networks to geopolitical flashpoints. Recovery will depend on both diplomatic progress and operational adaptations in an increasingly constrained global airspace environment.
To terminate the airspace ban, India must provide future guarantees through international guarantors that it will not ingress/ violate Pakistan’s airspace and souvergnity in any way otherwise; Indian aviation sector will pay a very heavy and unsustainable toll.
(Figures are based on airline disclosures, industry analyses, and media reporting from 2025–early 2026; actual realized costs may vary with fuel prices, route optimizations, and the ban’s ultimate duration).
