Modi’s alliance will easily win India’s heartland vote

• The victory of Bihar, the 3rd most populous state, with almost 130 million inhabitants is crucial.
• Modi’s coalition is well ahead of the 122-seat majority in Bihar.
• The result would be a boost for Modi after the national vote slumped in 2024.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling coalition is set to comfortably retain power in the poor and populous state of Bihar, according to vote counts on Friday, giving it a boost after a disappointing national vote last year.

The capture of Bihar is crucial because it is India’s third most populous state with nearly 130 million inhabitants and sends the fifth highest number of MPs to Parliament. Control of the eastern state strengthens any party’s power in the Hindi heartland and often helps shape national political narratives.

Modi’s National Democratic Alliance coalition could easily cross the 122-seat majority mark, with data from the Election Commission of India showing it ahead in more than 170 seats. television channel NDTV he said he was leading with 191 seats, a potential gain of 69 seats from the last election.

“Bihar’s mandate is clear!” Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party told X. “People have made it clear – now development is identity. No jungle raj, good governance is needed!”

The Bihar result would mark a sharp turnaround for Modi, who lost his parliamentary majority in last year’s national election and had to rely on allies to stay in power. Since then, his party has steadily regained ground, winning several important state contests.

Political analysts said one of the key factors in the Bihar election was Modi’s transfer of ₹75 billion ($853 million) in September to millions of women in the state under an employment program.

Women voters across India have turned out in greater numbers over the past decade, and political parties have competed to woo them. Previously, men easily outnumbered women in India’s polling stations.

Political analyst Amitabh Tiwari, who traveled to Bihar during the elections – held in two phases on November 6 and 11 – said it was “only women” who were going to give Modi a better result than he got last time.

According to a survey this week by Tiwari’s VoteVibe agency, Modi’s alliance secured 48.5 percent of the women’s vote, more than 10 percentage points higher than the main opposition bloc.

States like Assam, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu are set to go to the polls next year. Of these states, the BJP is in power only in Assam.