India-Canada diplomatic thaw remains remote despite visa relaxation

OTTAWA/NEW DELHI,:

Repairing the frayed diplomatic ties between India and Canada will be a long process after each side adopted maximalist positions, despite a surprise move by New Delhi to ease some visa restrictions for Canadians, officials and experts say.

India recently decided to partially restore visa services, weeks after suspending them over Ottawa’s claim that Indian agents may have been involved in the killing of a Canadian separatist Sikh leader from Punjab state.

The mutual accusations after that accusation, which India strongly denies, have strained ties between the two countries – close for nearly a century and with extensive ties through the Sikh diaspora – to their worst in living memory.

And while India’s visa easing may have raised some expectations of improved relations, it was not a breakthrough as neither side has much incentive to speed up a return to normalcy, officials and experts in both countries said.

Neither New Delhi nor Ottawa appear likely to take dramatic steps to reconcile soon as the investigation into Canada’s assassination moves forward and Prime Minister Narendra Modi prepares for India’s national elections due in May.

“The relationship is in deep crisis, perhaps the worst ever,” said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington. “Each side may have a strong interest in not escaping the crisis entirely, but that does not mean that there are strong incentives to resolve the crisis.”

Ajay Bisaria, India’s ambassador to Canada from 2020 to 2022, said the relationship was in a “de-escalation phase” after “quiet diplomacy”.

Reading Canada-India murder tussle

Even with the postponement, the visa restrictions are expected to prevent the movement of tens of thousands of Indians and people of Indian origin living in or planning to study in Canada.

Although both governments have spared business and trade ties, the resentment has delayed talks on a free trade deal and threatens Canada’s plans for the Indo-Pacific, where New Delhi is critical to efforts to control an increasingly more assertive China.

“Tough moment”

On September 18, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada was “actively pursuing credible allegations” linking Indian government agents to the June killing in a Vancouver suburb of Hardeep Singh Nijar, 45, who had supported the fringe position he is seeking to carve out an independent Sikh homeland, Khalistan. outside India.

Canada expels India’s intelligence chief to Ottawa. India quickly responded by suspending 13 visa categories for Canadians and reducing Canada’s diplomatic presence in India, a move that Ottawa said violated the Vienna Conventions.

Then on October 25, New Delhi said it would resume issuing visas for four categories, a measure Indian officials said was aimed at helping people of Indian origin travel to India during the wedding season that begins this month.

“This is not a thaw,” said an Indian foreign ministry official Reuters. “People can read whatever they want into that.”

Ottawa sparked the crisis and must take the first step toward climbing out of its seat, another official said.

A senior Canadian government source said while Ottawa’s ultimate goal was to get back to where things were, the unpredictability in the coming months surrounding the murder investigation and trial, as well as elections in India, could interfere.

read more India will restore some visa services to Canada

“This is a difficult time, but Canada is not abandoning its Indo-Pacific strategy,” the source said.

“Moderate de-escalation”

Officials in India and Canada spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on the matter.

India’s foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment. Canada’s foreign affairs department pointed to comments made by Foreign Minister Melanie Jolie on Oct. 30.

“We have a long-term approach to India because this is a relationship that spans decades and we all know that we have very strong people-to-people ties with the country,” Jolie said, adding that she continued to speak with her Indian counterpart.

Canada has the largest Sikh population outside of Punjab, with 770,000 people reporting Sikhism as their religion in the 2021 census. India is by far the largest source of international students in Canada, accounting for 40% of study permit holders – a vital source for Canada’s fastest-growing international education business, contributing over C$20 billion ($15 billion) to the economy annually.

India-Canada tensions over Sikh separatism have haunted the relationship since the 1980s. Modi, who leads a Hindu-nationalist party and cultivates a strongman image, is unlikely to be seen backing down, especially ahead of elections .

Despite the “modest de-escalation” on visas, Kugelman said most of the retaliation remains “and there’s still a lot of anger on both sides. So we shouldn’t overestimate the potential for de-escalation here.”

Michael Bociurkiw, a foreign policy expert at the Atlantic Council, said “a pause” was needed “to cool things down and get the relationship back on track.”

“But it’s not going to happen overnight. It’s going to take time.”