IMF team is expected on September 25th for second review talks below $ 7 billion loan

• The macroeconomic framework may be re -established due to floods.
• The increase in GDP that will be revised downward due to impact on agriculture.
• Inflation based on the CPC can be increased beyond the projected target of 5% to 7%.

ISLAMABAD: The Shipment of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is scheduled to visit Pakistan on September 25 for second review talks below $ 7 billion The news reported on Friday.

Following catastrophic floods, the macroeconomic framework may have to be revised down/re -established, including the actual rate of GDP growth, inflation based on the CPC, monetary policy, exports, imports and tax revenue for current use.

GDP growth may be revised below 4.2% due to the serious impact on agriculture and the possible escalation of inflation pressure due to food disorders.

Inflation based on the CPC can rise beyond the intended 5% to 7% target for current use. The export sector can also notice a dip, especially in rice exports, and imports, which are expected to monitor an increase mainly due to flooding agricultural damage.

The trade deficit had already expanded before the floods. The application of agricultural income tax (AIT) will also be discussed in detail, as the IMF will request details of its capabilities for collection.

The target of tax revenue for late September 2025 will also become a significant headache for Pakistani negotiators in the upcoming review talks. The delay in liberalizing the evaluation report of governance and corruption (GDC) has shown another bone between the two sides, because Islamabad had not granted the IMF permission to release its report.

The IMF had publicly pledged to publish this GCD evaluation report by the end of August 2025, but this deadline had already lost. “The IMF review is scheduled to visit Pakistan from September 25 to October 8, 2025, for second review talks and release of the third Tranche worth $ 1.1 billion in EFF.

Both sides will have to conclude an agreement on the Memorandum of Economic and Economic Policy (MEFP) on the review of macroeconomic numbers aligned with the realities that emerged in constant catastrophic floods, “the top officials confirmed.

Pakistan is committed to amending the Law on Wealth Fund (SWF) in other laws, in consultation with the Fund’s staff and according to MEFP to adopt appropriate governance mechanisms and safeguards after international standards and good practices to ensure that SW Conventance as Inssing A Holding and Adepical Fiscal Safe. 2026.

Review talks will take place in two stages: Technical talks followed by politics negotiations. The IMF team will deal with the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Energy, the Ministry of Planning, the Pakistan State Bank and regulators such as FBR, Ogra and Nepra.

Separate rounds of talks will also be held with the provincial governments of Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.

Pakistan has so far received $ 2.1 billion based on EFF setting of $ 7 billion. In order to secure the next tranche, however, the government will have to demonstrate progress in structural reforms and bridge a significant tax gap.

The Federal Revenue Council (FBR) has been tasked with the Rs collection. 3.1 trillion during July -September, but only in the next two weeks, should almost be mobilized. 1.1 trillion to hit the quarterly target.

The FBR provides for the Tax of RS1.385 trillion for September 2025.

Revenue collection efforts have been hampered by recent floods and lower evidence from utilities, leaving the FBB with a deficit of 50 billion Rs. Of this, over $ 25 billion in tax losses are directly linked to flood losses in Punjab, where the total impact is estimated at 34 billion Rs.

Bahawalpur’s tax offices have reported fewer collections than half of normal levels, while nine field formations, such as Lahore, Gujranwala, Multan, Sahiwal and Sargodha, have all seen significant reductions.

The FBR requires an increase of 21% on a year-long basis in the tax collection to achieve the July-September target, but the collections by August had increased only 15%. With these slippages and structural issues, Pakistan is expected to face tough negotiations with the IMF mission later this month.

This scribe sent a message to the finance ministry and asked about the expectation of the upcoming review talks, but received no response until the report was submitted.