Oil prices were mostly steady on Monday, holding last week’s gains as the prospect of a lasting US-Iran deal receded and fears of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz persisted (Geo News).
Brent crude futures were unchanged at $88.55 a barrel by 0128 GMT, with US West Texas Intermediate down 14 cents at $82.26. Both contracts gained more than 5 per cent last week after attacks on tankers operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company in the strait and on a Saudi Aramco refinery.
The traffic figure is the one to hold onto. Ship-tracking data from Kpler showed five commodity vessels transited Hormuz on Saturday and none at all on Sunday, against 31 over the previous weekend. Before the war the waterway carried 125 to 140 vessels a day.
The United Arab Emirates accused Iran of attacking a third ADNOC-operated vessel transiting the strait on Friday, state news agency WAM reported, after blaming Tehran for two other incidents involving ADNOC ships on Thursday evening.
Diplomacy is not filling the gap. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said over the weekend that Iran had not decided to resume talks with the United States, while President Donald Trump urged Americans to accept slightly higher petrol prices for the duration.
“Oil prices have now rebounded almost completely from the lows seen in early August, as hopes for a more permanent resolution between the US and Iran have faded and geopolitical risk premiums have returned to the market,” said Priyanka Sachdeva of Phillip Nova in Singapore.
She was cautious about further rises. “I see limited upside from here unless we get clear evidence of renewed aggression in the Strait of Hormuz, particularly material damage to tankers or oil infrastructure.”
For Pakistan, which imports roughly 90 per cent of its energy through the Gulf, a strait carrying no traffic at all on a given day is the more consequential number than the price.
