CSU predicts an above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2024

HOUSTON:

Colorado State University (CSU) forecasters on Tuesday increased the number of hurricanes expected in 2024 in a July update to their long-range forecast.

“Hurricane Beryl, a Category 5 deep tropical cyclone, is also a possible harbinger of a hyperactive season,” according to the forecast released Tuesday.

At least 14 deaths have been attributed to Hurricane Beryl, which devastated Grenada and Jamaica in the Caribbean before slamming into Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and then turning north to make landfall on Monday in Texas, knocking out power to millions and shutting down major oil ports .

In the forecast released Tuesday, CSU forecasters said they expect six major hurricanes, with winds of more than 111 miles per hour (178 kilometers per hour), out of 12 hurricanes out of 25 named storms before the season ends. on November 30.

In a forecast issued April 13, the CSU team predicted five major hurricanes out of 11 hurricanes out of 23 named storms.

Also read: Hurricane Beryl hits Texas, causing chaos and power outages

A tropical storm has sustained wind speeds of 39 mph (63 kmh) and becomes a hurricane when sustained winds reach 74 mph (119 kmh). A Category 5 hurricane has sustained winds of at least 157 mph (252 kmh).

An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven develop into hurricanes and three become major cyclones.

CSU forecasters cite two main reasons for the above-average hurricane forecasts. The seas are warmer than usual, providing more energy to fuel tropical cyclones. Also, the absence this year of an El Nino weather pattern, which was present in 2023. El Nino produces strong winds that break up hurricanes.

“While early-season storm activity in the western Atlantic typically bears little relation to overall activity across the basin, deep tropical cyclone activity in the tropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean (as we saw with Beryl) is often associated with seasons hyperactivity,” according to the prediction. .

In a May forecast, US government forecasters said they expected between four and seven major hurricanes among a projected eight to 13 hurricanes, which could emerge from an expected 17 to 25 named tropical storms.