US New Car Sales Set to Increase for 2024 — What Does This Mean for America’s Auto Industry Revival?

Forecasts show marginal growth in US new vehicle sales next year as the auto industry tries to recover from disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and ongoing supply chain challenges from 2020.

Forecasts from prominent auto data companies expect an annual increase of between 1% and 4%, with estimated sales reaching around 15.6 million to 16.1 million vehicles.

If realized, these figures would mark the highest sales since 2019, when more than 17 million new cars and trucks were sold domestically.

The auto sector, struggling with production and supply chain issues exacerbated by the global health crisis, has seen sales fall below 14 million vehicles in 2022 – the lowest in more than a decade.

Even a modest rise in U.S. sales could have positive effects for consumers and the economy, potentially easing concerns about affordability amid inflation, rising interest rates and record high new vehicle prices.

Jessica Caldwell, Head of Insights at Edmunds, notes the promise of increased inventory and enticing offers for consumers next year.

However, it highlights the maintenance of high interest rates in 2023, leading to conflicting market dynamics. While increased sales are beneficial for investors, the industry faces challenges with lower prices and rising incentives, potentially affecting automakers and dealers that have been accustomed to posting profits in recent years.

Looking to 2024, automakers must decide whether they are satisfied with the current supply-demand balance or ready to push sales volumes closer to pre-pandemic levels.

The expected increase in US sales would mark the first sequential sales expansion for the auto sector since 2015-16.