Petrol has fallen for the first time in this run, by 43 paisa, while diesel rose again (PSO).
| Fuel | New | Change | Previous | |—|—|—|—| | Petrol | Rs390.79 | -Rs0.43 | Rs391.22 | | High-speed diesel | Rs424.92 | +Rs3.47 | Rs421.45 |
We said we would report this either way
Yesterday this newspaper noted that oil had retreated on a US crude inventory build while the pump price rose Rs6.88, and wrote: “If the mechanism passes falls through as fast as rises, the effect of that inventory build should appear within a day or two. If it does not appear, the symmetry claim fails. That is now a checkable prediction rather than an argument, and we will report either outcome.”
Here is the outcome, and it is split.
A fall did appear on petrol, within one day. It was 43 paisa, against Rs45.35 of increases since 7 September — slightly under one percent of the rise, returned.
On diesel no fall appeared at all. It rose Rs3.47.
Twelve days
| | 7 September | 18 September | Change | |—|—|—|—| | Petrol | Rs345.87 | Rs390.79 | +Rs44.92 (+13.0pc) | | High-speed diesel | Rs378.05 | Rs424.92 | +Rs46.87 (+12.4pc) |
Diesel has now risen more in rupees than petrol, and it is the fuel that moves freight, buses and tractors.
What is happening to oil
Brent fell for a third consecutive day to about $104, down 0.75 percent, and WTI to $101.20. Saudi Arabia has signalled it could restore roughly half the capacity of its east-west pipeline within days, and is shipping more crude to Asian refiners through transfers off Oman.
“Recent efforts to restore Saudi export capacity have reduced some of the immediate supply anxiety,” said Priyanka Sachdeva of Phillip Nova.
The fair conclusion
The mechanism is not frozen — it can move down, and it did, one day after the input did. That is a real answer to industry’s complaint and it should be recorded as such.
It is also a 43-paisa answer. Whether the pass-through is genuinely symmetric will be settled over the coming week of a falling oil price, not by one revision.
What is not established
OGRA has published no statement or calculation basis. No explanation has been given for why petrol fell while diesel rose, and the two products track different international benchmarks and carry different tax loads.
[Image: The Express Tribune]
