Both fuels fell today, with diesel decreasing for the first time since the run of increases began (PSO).
| Fuel | New | Change | Previous | |—|—|—|—| | Petrol | Rs389.14 | -Rs1.65 | Rs390.79 | | High-speed diesel | Rs424.04 | -Rs0.88 | Rs424.92 |
The symmetry test, day two
On 17 September this newspaper published a prediction: if the daily mechanism passes falls through as fast as rises, the effect of a retreating oil price should appear within a day or two — and we said we would report either outcome.
| | | |—|—| | 18 September | petrol -Rs0.43; diesel +Rs3.47 | | 19 September | petrol -Rs1.65; diesel -Rs0.88 |
So the answer is now clearer than it was yesterday. Petrol has fallen twice, by a larger amount on the second day. Diesel rose first and has now fallen.
The mechanism does move down on both products. Whether it moves down as fast as it moved up remains unproven: Rs2.08 has come off petrol against Rs45.35 that went on, and Rs0.88 off diesel against Rs46.87.
Thirteen days
| | 7 September | 19 September | Change | |—|—|—|—| | Petrol | Rs345.87 | Rs389.14 | +Rs43.27 (+12.5pc) | | High-speed diesel | Rs378.05 | Rs424.04 | +Rs45.99 (+12.2pc) |
What has already been passed on elsewhere
Goods transporters announced a 7 percent increase in freight charges. The All Pakistan Goods Transport Alliance, led by Malik Shehzad Awan, said: “If the government does not provide relief to goods transporters, we cannot operate transport services at these rates.”
He warned of a nationwide strike if commitments from the 8-17 August transport strike are not honoured within a deadline expiring next week.
A note on the figures the alliance gave
The association cited a rise of Rs26.88 in diesel and Rs20 in petrol over the previous seven days. Measured against the published series, the seven days to today give +Rs20.72 for diesel and +Rs13.32 for petrol; the alliance’s figures correspond more closely to a window beginning around 10 or 11 September.
The direction is not in dispute. The period being measured is, and freight rates set against an overstated baseline do not come back down when the baseline is corrected.
What is not established
OGRA has published no statement or calculation basis for the revisions, and no explanation has been given for the differing scale of the two products’ movements.
[Image: The Express Tribune]
