WASHINGTON: Pakistan faces a delicate strategic challenge as escalating tensions involving Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthis raise questions about Islamabad’s obligations under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, South Asia analyst Michael Kugelman said in a conversation with The Pakistan Daily.
Kugelman said the agreement is important for Pakistan because Islamabad wants to demonstrate that it is firmly embedded in the emerging security architecture of the Middle East. At the same time, he said Pakistan has little interest in being drawn directly into another regional war.
“I think that there’s a bit of a challenge for Pakistan with the Mecca agreement,” Kugelman said, explaining that Islamabad wants to demonstrate support for Saudi Arabia while avoiding direct involvement in an increasingly unpredictable conflict.
The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement was signed by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye on August 7. The accord states that an armed attack against any one of the three countries would be regarded as an attack against all three. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry has described the agreement as defensive and said it is intended to strengthen existing defence cooperation and collective deterrence rather than target any particular country. (Radio Pakistan)
Pakistan Seeking a Strategic Balance
According to Kugelman, Pakistan’s challenge is to reassure Riyadh of its support without taking steps that could signal a willingness to enter the conflict directly.
He pointed to Pakistan’s existing security cooperation with Saudi Arabia, including military deployments and defence ties that predate the Mecca agreement, as evidence that Islamabad has mechanisms available to demonstrate support without necessarily becoming a direct party to hostilities.
Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry confirmed this week that deployments had taken place under the earlier Saudi-Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement, while declining to discuss operational details. (Ministry of Foreign Affairs Pakistan)
The issue has become increasingly significant as fighting involving Saudi Arabia and the Houthis intensifies. Saudi Arabia has sought assistance from several partners amid pressure on its missile-defence capabilities, although AP reported that no country had committed direct military support as of September 17. (AP News)
Kugelman said Islamabad therefore has to maintain what he described as a “strategic balance” — demonstrating solidarity with Saudi Arabia while avoiding actions that could pull Pakistan into a widening Middle Eastern conflict.
Trump Taking Cautious Approach Toward China
Turning to U.S.-China relations, Kugelman said the Trump administration’s approach toward Beijing has at times appeared contradictory, combining strategic competition with efforts to prevent tensions from escalating.
He said President Donald Trump appears conscious of China’s economic power and its importance in critical global supply chains, giving Washington an incentive to avoid actions that could trigger economically damaging retaliation.
Kugelman characterized Trump’s approach as treating China “with kid gloves,” meaning that Washington is proceeding cautiously and trying to avoid unnecessarily provoking Beijing.
He said engagement between Trump and Chinese leaders should therefore be viewed partly as an attempt to manage tensions even as strategic competition between the two countries continues.
U.S.-Pakistan Relations Driven Largely by Trump, Kugelman Says
On U.S.-Pakistan relations, Kugelman said he does not expect the November 2026 congressional midterm elections by themselves to fundamentally reshape Washington’s current engagement with Islamabad.
He argued that the recent improvement in bilateral relations has been driven principally by the Trump administration and by the president’s own engagement with Pakistan’s leadership rather than by Congress.
Kugelman described the relationship as increasingly personalized around Trump’s interactions with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir.
Recent developments have included expanding defence and commercial contacts. On September 16, Reuters reported that U.S. drone manufacturer Powerus had signed a memorandum of understanding with the Pakistan Army and received an initial order related to unmanned aerial systems, another indication of expanding defence and technology engagement between the two sides. (Reuters)
Kugelman said congressional election results could have significant implications for U.S. domestic politics, but he expects their immediate effect on the direction of U.S.-Pakistan relations to be more limited because foreign policy is primarily directed by the executive branch.
His comments come as Pakistan attempts to navigate several relationships simultaneously — strengthening security cooperation with Saudi Arabia and Türkiye, maintaining a diplomatic role in Middle Eastern crises, and expanding engagement with Washington while avoiding direct involvement in regional wars.
