Talks between Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund opened in Karachi on Wednesday, covering a programme review together with the Article-IV consultation. Two tranches totalling $1.2 billion are at stake (Express Tribune).
The mission is due in Islamabad from 28 September — “provided the capital city remains open”, in the formulation used by this newspaper’s source outlet. The PTI march is on the 27th.
The gaps
The reporting, attributed to officials privy to the discussions rather than to named sources, lists structural commitments not met:
– Health and education spending. A cumulative target of Rs3.47 trillion across the five governments was missed by about Rs370 billion. – Fiscal accounts. Rs853 billion of discrepancies in the accounts remain unexplained. – State-owned enterprises. The commitment to table bills amending the governing laws of 10 SOEs was not fully implemented. – Sugar. The deadline to agree a national policy incorporating the agreed recommendations was missed. – Financial sector. The June 2026 deadline to publish a post-2027 financial sector strategy was missed. – Sovereign Wealth Fund Act. The bill was tabled but has not been approved by parliament.
The one to watch
The Rs853 billion figure is the item a reader should hold on to. It is not a missed deadline or an unpassed bill — it is money that the government’s own accounts cannot currently reconcile, in a year when the FBR is under a collection target the ADB has separately flagged as at risk of being missed.
A statistical discrepancy of that size does not by itself indicate wrongdoing; large gaps between the financing and expenditure sides of Pakistan’s fiscal accounts have recurred for years and are partly a provincial reporting problem. But it is the kind of number that makes every other number in the programme softer than it looks.
The political overlay
Two of the items — the SOE bills and the Sovereign Wealth Fund Act — require parliament. Parliament is currently consumed by a confrontation over a march, and the capital is being sealed.
The prime minister met IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva in New York on Wednesday. This newspaper reports separately that he raised the fuel subsidy with her and said the Fund had no objection to it.
[Image: The Express Tribune]
