Hamas has prepared for a long, protracted war in the Gaza Strip and believes it can stall Israel’s advance long enough to force its arch-enemy to agree to a ceasefire, two sources close to the group’s leadership said.
Hamas has stockpiled weapons, missiles, food and medical supplies, according to the people, who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the situation. The group is confident its thousands of fighters can survive for months in a city with tunnels dug deep under the Palestinian enclave and frustrate Israeli forces with urban guerrilla tactics, the people told Reuters.
Ultimately, Hamas believes international pressure on Israel to end the siege, as civilian casualties mount, could force a ceasefire and a negotiated settlement that would see the militant group emerge with a tangible concession, such as the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for Israeli hostages, the sources said.
The group has made clear to the U.S. and Israel in indirect hostage negotiations brokered by Qatar that it wants to force such a prisoner release in exchange for hostages, according to four Hamas officials, a regional official and a person familiar with the Whites. House’s thought.
In the longer term, Hamas has said it wants to end Israel’s 17-year blockade of Gaza, as well as halt Israeli settlement expansion and what Palestinians see as heavy-handed Israeli security forces at al-Aqsa Mosque, the holiest Muslim site. . sanctuary in Jerusalem.
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On Thursday, UN experts called for a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza, saying Palestinians there are at “serious risk of genocide”. Many experts see a spiraling crisis, with no clear end game for either side.
“The mission to destroy Hamas is not easily accomplished,” said Marwan Al-Muasher, a former foreign minister and deputy prime minister of Jordan who now works for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
“There is no military solution to this conflict. We are in dark times. This war is not going to be short.”
Israel has developed overwhelming aerial firepower since the October 7 attack. The death toll in Gaza has surpassed 9,000, with each day of violence sparking protests around the world over the plight of more than 2 million Gazans trapped in the tiny enclave, many without water, food or electricity. Israeli airstrikes hit a refugee camp in Gaza on Tuesday, killing at least 50 Palestinians.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is committed to eliminating Hamas and has rejected calls for a ceasefire. Israeli officials say they are under no illusions about what to expect.
The country has prepared for a “long and painful war,” said Danny Danon, Israel’s former UN ambassador and former member of the Knesset’s foreign affairs and defense committee.
“We know in the end that we will prevail and that we will defeat Hamas,” he told Reuters. “The question is going to be price and we have to be very careful and very careful and understand that it’s a very complex urban area to maneuver.”
The United States has said now is not the time for a blanket ceasefire, although it says pauses in hostilities are needed to deliver humanitarian aid.
Hamas ‘fully prepared’
Adeeb Ziadeh, a Palestinian international affairs expert at Qatar University who has studied Hamas, said the group should have had a longer-term plan to follow up its attack on Israel.
“Those who carried out the October 7 attack with that level of skill, that level of expertise, precision and intensity, would have prepared themselves for a long-term battle. It is not possible for Hamas to engage in such an attack without being fully prepared and they mobilized for the result,” Ziadeh told Reuters.
Washington expects Hamas to try to bog down Israeli forces in street-to-street fighting in Gaza and inflict military casualties heavy enough to bolster Israeli public support for a protracted conflict, the source familiar with White House thinking said. , which has asked to remain anonymous in order to speak freely.
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Israeli officials, however, stressed to their American counterparts that they are prepared to confront Hamas’s guerrilla tactics as well as withstand international criticism of their attack, according to the person. Whether the country has the ability to eliminate Hamas or simply seriously degrade the organization remains an open question, the source added.
Hamas has about 40,000 fighters, according to sources within the organization. They can move around the enclave using a vast web of fortified tunnels, hundreds of kilometers long and up to 80 meters deep, built over many years.
On Thursday, militants in Gaza were seen emerging from tunnels to shoot at tanks and then disappearing back into the network, according to residents and video footage.
The Israeli military says soldiers from the Yahalom special mechanized combat unit are working with other forces to locate and destroy tunnel shafts, during what a spokesman called a “complex urban battle” in Gaza.
Hamas has fought a series of wars with Israel in recent decades, and Ali Baraka, Hamas’s Beirut-based head of foreign relations, said it had gradually improved its military capabilities, particularly its missiles. In the 2008 Gaza war, Hamas rockets had a maximum range of 40 km (25 miles), but this had increased to 230 km by the 2021 conflict, he added.
“In every war, we surprise the Israelis with something new,” Baraka told Reuters.
An official close to the Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah movement, which is an ally of Hamas, said the Palestinian group’s fighting force remained largely intact after weeks of shelling. Hezbollah has a joint military operations room in Lebanon with Hamas and other allied factions, according to Hezbollah and Hamas officials.
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