Harris leads Trump by 4 points in the latest poll

WASHINGTON:

A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Kamala Harris, the Democratic vice president, leading Republican Donald Trump 45 percent to 41 percent ahead of the Nov. 5 election. That 4-point lead is larger than the 1-point advantage he held at the end of July.

The poll, conducted over eight days, shows Harris gaining support, particularly among women and Hispanic voters. He has a 13-point lead over Trump in both demographics, a significant increase from his previous lead of 9 points among women and 6 points among Hispanics. Trump continues to lead among white voters and men, but his support among voters without a college degree has fallen from a 14-point lead in July to 7 points.

The poll shows a turnaround in the US presidential race after a tumultuous summer. President Joe Biden, 81, ended his campaign on July 21 after a poor debate performance against Trump that led to calls from fellow Democrats for him to resign.

Since then, Harris has gained ground in both national polls and key battleground states. But while national polls offer insight into voter sentiment, the ultimate winner will be decided through the Electoral College, where swing states are expected to play a critical role. In seven battleground states — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan and Nevada — Trump leads Harris 45 percent to 43 percent.

Matt Wolking, a Republican strategist who worked on Trump’s 2020 campaign, acknowledged that Harris poses a challenge to Trump, but noted that the race remains competitive. He stressed the importance of Trump focusing his campaign to avoid alienating voters who might have supported him because of their opposition to Biden. Since Harris officially accepted the Democratic nomination, she has been campaigning in battleground states, including Georgia, where Biden was losing support before his withdrawal.

The poll also reflects growing enthusiasm among Democratic voters, with 73 percent saying they are more excited about voting now that Harris is the nominee. That contrasts with a March poll in which 61 percent of Biden supporters said their main motivation was to oppose Trump. In the latest poll, 52% of Harris supporters said they were voting for her because they supported her as a candidate, rather than simply opposing Trump. Aimee Allison, founder of the liberal group She the People, commented that Harris represents the future for many voters, energizing them more than a race focused solely on Trump.

Trump supporters also showed enthusiasm, with 64 percent saying they were motivated to support him rather than simply oppose Harris.

The poll shows Trump is seen as stronger on the economy, with 45% of voters favoring his economic policies compared to 36% for Harris. Still, Harris has a clear advantage on abortion policy, with 47 percent of voters supporting her stance compared to 31 percent for Trump. That issue remains critical for Democrats after the Supreme Court’s decision in 2022 to strike down the nation’s right to abortion, a move made easier by Trump’s appointment of three conservative justices during his presidency.

In the poll, 41% of voters expressed concern about the possibility of the next president signing a national abortion ban, with 70% of Democrats sharing that concern.

The poll’s survey period overlaps with the Democratic National Convention, where Harris formally accepted the nomination, raising questions about whether the surge in enthusiasm will continue. The poll, conducted nationwide, included responses from 4,253 US adults, 3,562 of whom were registered voters. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 6% support in the poll, although he suspended his campaign on August 23, before the poll was closed.