Petrol now costs Rs389.14 a litre and high-speed diesel Rs424.04 — a rise of about Rs68 and Rs57 respectively since 22 July (Express Tribune).
The two-month move
| | Now | 22 July | Change | |—|—|—|—| | Petrol | Rs389.14 | Rs320.73 | +Rs68.41 | | High-speed diesel | Rs424.04 | Rs367.21 | +Rs56.83 |
This newspaper has been reporting the daily revisions since 7 September, over which petrol rose Rs43.27. The two-month figure shows how much of the increase preceded the period we have been tracking.
Why it is not just the crude price
Brent peaked near $109 in early September and has eased to about $100. But the prices Pakistan actually pays are higher than the futures benchmark:
| | 18 September | |—|—| | Physical Dated Brent | $125.42/barrel | | Dubai benchmark | $118.40/barrel |
That gap between the headline futures price and the physical cargo price is the war premium, and it is the part that does not appear in market reports.
What else has moved
Freight and war-risk insurance costs have tripled or quadrupled. Red Sea detours add about 10 days to a voyage. The east-west pipeline — described here as carrying 5 million barrels a day, against the 4 million reported elsewhere this month — was shut after drone strikes.
Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik: “Saudi supplies are currently out of reach because of Houthi attacks on the kingdom’s oil facilities.”
The liquidity problem underneath
Oil marketing companies are owed Rs66.7 billion in outstanding price differential claims and face a liquidity squeeze. Officials warn that procuring November cargoes will be “far harder and costlier”.
That is the same structure the petrol dealers complained about last week over the Rs75 billion relief scheme: companies advancing money to the state and waiting to be repaid.
What the government has done
| | | |—|—| | Targeted subsidies for low-income motorists | Rs75bn | | Official vehicle fuel allocation | cut 50pc for three months | | Navy escorts | since March | | Crude sourcing | diversifying to the US, West Africa, Oman, Libya, Kazakhstan |
Today
Petrol and diesel were unchanged for a third day at Rs389.14 and Rs424.04; PSO’s published rates still carry the 19 September effective date.
What is not established
The 5 million barrel figure for the pipeline conflicts with the 4 million reported earlier this month and we have not been able to reconcile them. No timeline has been given for clearing the Rs66.7bn owed to OMCs, and no forecast has been published for November supply.
[Image: The Express Tribune]
