For many US voters, the economy is personal and they blame the Democrats

Tiesha Blackwell, 24, voted for Joe Biden in 2020, but says she’s voting for Republican former President Donald Trump this year, and high food and housing prices are the main reasons.

Blackwell, who lives southwest of Detroit in Michigan, says she has a better job now, but her rent has doubled since she was forced to move and her grocery and utility bills have skyrocketed.

“I’m no worse off than I was four years ago,” Blackwell said on the sidelines of a rally with Trump’s running mate JD Vance in Detroit this month.

“But compared to then, things are very, very high out here. I went from paying $575 to now paying $1,100 just for rent. I remember ground chuck was $2.99 ​​a pound. Now it’s 4.99 $. Everything is higher.”

The United States’ economic recovery after COVID-19 has been the envy of the developed world, with robust consumer spending and business and federal investment helping the economy avoid a predicted recession. Stock markets are at record highs, jobs and wages are growing rapidly, unemployment is low and inflation is now below January 2020 levels after a rise in 2022.

However, prices for food, rent, utilities and treats like eating out are all well above 2019 levels due to complex factors over which the US government has limited impact, such as labor costs, lack of competition and issues of the supply chain.

Many Americans are in a constant state of sticker shock.

That may explain why voters in the seven battleground states that will determine the winner of the Nov. 5 election have a negative view of the economy, with 61 percent saying it’s on the wrong track. Reuters/Height poll this month and 68% said the cost of living was on the wrong track.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, and Trump have proposed different solutions. Harris has promised to crack down on rising prices and strengthen the child tax credit, while Trump has proposed cutting overtime taxes, imposing blanket tariffs on imports that he says will bring manufacturing back to the U.S. and mass deportations of immigrants.

Trump’s proposed tariffs and threats of deportation will raise prices for goods and services, many economists say, while Harris’ high-price ban has not been tested at the federal level.

But when asked which candidate had the best approach to issues, Trump led on the economy — 46 percent to 38 percent, a Reuters poll this month showed.

Economists say they sense voter frustration even if they think Trump’s plan won’t help.

“I understand inflation better than the average person, and I’ve worked at the Fed, but I’m still amazed at how much inflation upsets me,” said Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. critical of Trump’s tariff plans in the past.

“When I walk into a restaurant that I’ve been going to for years and instead of $50, it’s $70, I feel like someone punched me in the face and stole a $20 bill from my wallet,” Strain said.

Blackwell, a Michigan voter, says she accepts Trump’s argument that tariffs are needed to keep out imports and protect U.S. jobs. “Yes, it could increase the price for consumers, but in the long run something has to be done,” he said.

Michigan on Edge

Harris’ Monday visit to Michigan will be her 10th since becoming the party’s nominee. The state is still reeling from the loss of more than a third of its auto-related jobs since 1990 and supported Trump in 2016, while Biden won by less than three percentage points in 2020.

Harris’ campaign has more than 375 operatives in the state, nearly four times as many as Trump’s, yet a compilation of 538 polls shows Harris holding a less than 1 percentage point advantage over Trump in the state.

Last Monday, Harris and former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney met with suburban voters in Oakland County, outside Detroit. On Saturday, he joined former First Lady Michelle Obama in Kalamazoo.

Michigan’s unemployment rate has been consistently higher than the overall U.S. numbers for years, but the state achieved its highest employment level and lowest unemployment in 20 years last year as federal infrastructure money poured in.

Amesia Cross, a Democratic strategist, said the Biden administration deserved credit for creating hundreds of thousands of new jobs in Michigan and across the country, but that the high cost of living still has a big impact on voters.

“There are a lot of things that people feel about their personal economy that aren’t reflected in the jobs numbers,” Cross said, including concerns about the impact of electric vehicles on the local auto industry, the cost of housing and food.

“It’s not the Dow Jones Industrial Average. People are looking at whether they have the money to do the things they could do just a few years ago, and most people would tell you they can’t,” he said. “All politics is personal. Their lens is determined by what they go through on a daily basis.”

Devin Jones, 20, a college student who lives in Flint, Michigan, said his parents, both Army veterans, were forced to move out and buy a cheaper home in Goshen, Indiana, after inflation soared. They also postponed a long-promised 18th birthday trip to Germany, where Jones was born.

The increase in the price of ground meat and eggs was “ridiculous”, he said. “Under Trump, under previous administrations, things were OK. Things weren’t very expensive,” he said.

Not everyone is unhappy.

Stu Billey, 43, a United Auto Workers member and former Marine who lives in Flint Township, Michigan, said his union job now pays $40 an hour, compared to the $16 an hour he earned a few years ago.

“Having a union job has drastically increased my viability. I’m much better off, but that had to do with negotiating a contract,” he said, adding that higher grocery prices hurt less now given his higher wages.

Bailey says he voted for Biden in 2020 and will support Harris, but says there is far less enthusiasm for her than for other Democrats like Biden or former President Barack Obama.

“Voting and supporting are different things,” he said.