Brent crude oil surpassed $100 per barrel on July 24, 2026 — reaching its highest level since May and recording gains of more than 13 per cent on the week — after Houthi forces attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and declared a new blockade of Saudi ports, deepening supply disruption fears linked to the ongoing US-Iran conflict (Bloomberg; Fortune).
The attacks on Saudi tankers represented a significant Houthi escalation: beyond targeting commercial shipping in the Red Sea, the group’s stated intent to blockade Saudi ports extends the conflict’s economic reach directly to Saudi oil exports. Houthis are backed by Iran; the attacks came as US strikes on Iran entered their fourth week following the June 17 ceasefire collapse.
Kazakhstan’s decision to suspend crude exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal — a major Black Sea export route — after drone attacks on the facility added a second simultaneous supply shock to markets already strained by Middle East disruptions. The CPC terminal handles approximately 1.2 million barrels per day of Kazakh crude, mostly Tengiz production.
US President Donald Trump separately threatened to extend American strikes on Iran, adding a further geopolitical premium to the oil price.
Pakistan’s immediate exposure
Pakistan transitioned to daily domestic fuel pricing on July 17, linking pump prices directly to a seven-day rolling average of international crude. With Brent at $100+, the mechanism translates global price movements into daily consumer cost increases with a short lag. Petrol reached Rs331.52 per litre for July 24 — already at a historic high — and further increases are likely if Brent remains above the $100 threshold.
The combined effect of rising oil prices, the daily pricing mechanism, and Houthi disruptions to Red Sea shipping — a route Pakistan’s oil imports partially use — creates a direct transmission channel from the Middle East conflict to every petrol pump and diesel generator in Pakistan.
